пятница, 17 октября 2008 г.
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This financial crisis bullshit is chappinapos; my ass. While the bailout fiasco is providing me with one helluva Halloween costume idea, and for that Iapos;m grateful, the half assed "solutions" that both parties are proposing are, well, half assed. So here we go, Iapos;m going to solve the financial crisis. I dedicate this one to Nicole...
First off, recognize the problem. It isnapos;t falling assets. Housing prices and stocks go up and down, thatapos;s what they do. The problem is the credit freeze between banks. The reason banks wonapos;t lend to each other is because no one know who has what capital where. The tranche-ing of MBS and all the CDS bullshit ensured that. Ergo, the problem is too much debt, too little equity...in plain English...we gots no actual monies. Credit is not necessarily a bad thing. Itapos;s the way banking works. If I deposit $100 at a bank, the bank keeps $10 on reserve and uses the remaining $90 to invest or loan to other customers. This is banking. But it becomes a problem when you loan that money to people to canapos;t pay it back (NINA loans...seriously...whoapos;s kidding?), when you donapos;t keep enough actual capital on reserve, and when youapos;re stupid enough to borrow money from other banks to buy back all the bad loans that have no been repackaged in oh so pretty ways. Yes, our amazing financial sector did all of the above.
Now we get to the part where I call Paulson an idiot. Buying up at-risk assets from banks will dooo...what? Nothing. It will prettify the situation. But even if you give Amy Winhouse a makeover, sheapos;s still a fucking disaster. You can make the balance sheet look better, but thereapos;s still no bloody capital.
Solution: First step is triage. Like we do in the South, when yer dawgs lookinapos; dead-like, take apos;er out back and shoot apos;er. Let the bad banks die. Nationalize them and sell of the good stock to strong banks so that the FDIC isnapos;t further strained. Step two, the Warren Buffet step. Recapitalize good banks by buying preferred stock. Hell, even go so far as to announce a federal matching program where every private investment into a bank is matched dollar for dollar by the government. Be like Sweden.
Once banks are no longer in danger of going tits up at a momentapos;s notice, normal lending will return.
Ok, now some quick last minute on the ground stuff... 1) Recapitalize banks. See above. 2) I hate to say this, but suspend dividends for a while. Itapos;ll be wildly unpopular, bank share prices will drop, but at least banks will have access to their own money. 3) Workout repayment plans for mortgages that have any hope whatsoever. The rest...triage. And for whoever our next president may be, 4) Restructure regulations with caution. This is a free market economy. Socialism is no the answer, but we do need a bit more structure.
There. Problem solved. Now was that so hard?
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